Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 16.053080 18.326481 20.776338 23.608826 26.789583 30.247179 34.286324
2025-01-26 12.906823 16.033288 19.662019 24.169436 29.601571 35.919543 43.806036
2025-02-02 11.376029 14.914777 19.220007 24.813866 31.857359 40.396489 51.493745
2025-02-09 9.855948 13.569578 18.283612 24.660399 33.008303 43.505544 57.636862
2025-02-16 8.616092 12.385875 17.353135 24.312797 33.736032 45.963904 62.928556
2025-02-23 7.765180 11.608399 16.846008 24.419630 34.987065 49.087245 69.176329
2025-03-02 7.111919 11.021881 16.517647 24.696387 36.423296 52.468681 75.880838
2025-03-09 6.490162 10.408770 16.080245 24.752261 37.508000 55.374869 82.028511
2025-03-16 5.870426 9.731874 15.480434 24.501620 38.098113 57.571082 87.235461
2025-03-23 5.449203 9.315550 15.223485 24.719160 39.353790 60.743391 93.953702
2025-03-30 5.203723 9.151138 15.329006 25.477845 41.439897 65.202655 102.737284
2025-04-06 4.756517 8.614803 14.805069 25.206590 41.911621 67.254054 107.993598
2025-04-13 4.136739 7.741242 13.685398 23.924857 40.750692 66.807465 109.503874
2025-04-20 3.941339 7.581300 13.723854 24.527140 42.620957 71.123489 118.570705
2025-04-27 3.771149 7.447782 13.790390 25.168326 44.572147 75.635262 128.120334
2025-05-04 3.482724 7.072276 13.409831 25.016824 45.188404 78.027198 134.376100
2025-05-11 3.190970 6.662751 12.935679 24.663329 45.428820 79.798730 139.677462
2025-05-18 2.994480 6.416674 12.734094 24.772006 46.456857 82.898288 147.275378
2025-05-25 2.838189 6.234666 12.634412 25.052255 47.789657 86.553228 155.937109
2025-06-01 2.665050 6.002835 12.422995 25.108913 48.719184 89.551598 163.598009
2025-06-08 2.468139 5.703894 12.060325 24.854960 49.065141 91.546474 169.604109
2025-06-15 2.342753 5.543346 11.953234 25.075365 50.282224 95.098142 178.432960
2025-06-22 2.286136 5.525347 12.125864 25.844005 52.552222 100.596305 190.884018